Abstract
This paper applies the concept of tourist destination lifecycle to explain visitor attraction performance as an evolutionary process. As a starting point it explores a critique of Butler 's (1980) hypothetical model with a view to applying it to historical visitor attraction data. The paper builds on Scottish visitor attraction lifecycle analysis developed by Lennon (2001) by focusing on the museum and gallery sector. It will provide evidence that factors impacting on the lifecycle of these organisations are multifarious to such an extent that the sector operates in a highly chaotic environment. By analysing qualitative positive and negative impacts on visitor attraction performance commonalities will be identified to explain performance trends. Case study examples will be used to explain the experience of individual museums and galleries. The idea is to explore the scope of causal factors that impact on the lifecycle curve. It is expected that this paper will contribute towards further research that strives to develop a model of sustainable development for museums. This model will ultimately help guide visitor attraction managers to build a strategy to help combat decline. This will provide a useful tool for future planning and development as well as for forecasting performance.

Key words: Lifecycle, chaos theory, visitor attractions, museums and galleries, performance indicators, tourism trends.

By Margaret Graham , Claire Bereziat